Feature screening for high-dimensional structural break predictive regression

A screening procedure that jointly selects active predictors and estimates multiple change points in high-dimensional predictive regressions.

With Qin, Z., Zhang, R. and Zhang, W. Working paper.

Abstract

Predictive regression is a crucial tool for exploring return predictability. In this study, we introduce an efficient procedure for selecting and estimating active predictors and change points in structural break predictive regression. Our approach allows the number of change points to increase with the sample size and accommodates sparse active predictors that may be stationary or cointegrated. We begin by identifying the active predictors using a Sure Independence Canonical Screening (SICS) procedure. Next, we estimate the change points through a Ratio-Controlled Regression Screening (RCRS) method. Finally, we reduce redundancy by eliminating unnecessary breakpoints and predictors using information criteria (IC). This approach allows for consistent estimation and selection of true breakpoints and active predictors. Our simulations and empirical studies demonstrate that the proposed procedure performs effectively.

Links

• arXiv

BibTeX

@unpublished{qin2026feature,
  title         = {Feature screening for high-dimensional structural break predictive regression},
  author        = {Qin, Zhenjie and Zhang, Rongmao and Zhang, Wenyang and Zu, Yang},
  year          = {2026},
  note          = {Working paper},
  eprint        = {2606.18949},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv}
}